Two Numbers, Different Jobs
ROI answers 'did this work?'; CAGR answers 'how well, per year, compared with alternatives?' An 80% gain over 5 years is a 12.5% CAGR, excellent, but a different sentence than '80%'.
CAGR is also the great equalizer: it makes a 3-year holding comparable with a 20-year one, which is the only fair way to compare funds, portfolios, or advisors.
Realistic Benchmarks
The long-run nominal averages: S&P 500 about 10%, U.S. bonds 5%, cash 3%. But sequences vary wildly, the market has spent whole decades below average, so plan with bands, not points.
The silent tax: at 3% inflation, 10% nominal is 7% real. Every retirement projection should be built on real returns, or the plan quietly assumes today's prices forever.
What Moves Long-Term Outcomes
Asset allocation explains the bulk of portfolio returns; fees compound against you (1% of fees over 40 years erases roughly a quarter of wealth); contributions are the biggest lever of all.
The evidence is blunt: ordinary investors who automate, diversify, and stay invested through cycles outperform most active strategies, mostly by not being their own worst enemy.
Sources
FAQ
What is a good investment return?
Long-run stock averages are ~10% nominal, ~7% real. Anything above that, consistently, is exceptional.
What is the difference between ROI and CAGR?
ROI is the total gain in percent; CAGR is the annualized rate that produces it, the fair comparison across time periods.
Should I include dividends in returns?
Yes — total return (price change plus reinvested dividends) is the honest measure; price alone understates stocks by ~2% per year.
A note before you begin: this tool offers educational estimates only. It cannot replace advice from a qualified professional.